Casting Shadows

BF Wolfe, despite pressing demands on his time has put together and sent me an analysis of the first scenario for the Battletech Lunchtime Challenge, complete with spreadsheet! As you may remember from earlier Battletech posts on this blog, such as Battletech Battle Royale 3025 , BF bases his tactical considerations on relative damage curves over time. I quote:

Wrrrrr.  click…  analysis complete.  (In my best star trek computer voice).  🙂
I won’t be able to post these details in the comment section, so I’ll send to you to post as you see fit.

Methods:  I calculated the damage curves of each mech against each potential opponent.  Remember, these numbers are ‘expected’ damage, multiplying weapon totals at a given range times the probability of hitting that mech given gunnery, range and reasonable movement modifiers.  This is why a grasshoppers expected damage against the assassin is much lower than against the commando.

I’ve attached the spread sheet with all these numbers, but plotting them all would be too much I think.  What I did plot, was the lance vs lance totals.  The ‘best’ lance damage is assuming each mech fires each round at the opponent which maximizes its expected damage.  What is more likely is the ‘average’ curve which assumes that mechs will often have to fire against less than optimal opponents

The main strategic points as i see them

-The swords have a clear advantage at most ranges, except for a small pocket at midrange(4-6 hexes).

– If the swords choose to defend the Atlas, they will be less able to choose their ranges, and the irregulars might slip into that small pocket more often than not.

-15 turns will likely yield 120 total points of damage for the Swords and a little less for the irregulars.  This could take down one (maybe two) mechs on each side.

I won’t have time to do a turn by turn contribution, but here’s what I would do for each side

Irregulars

1) Shoot the pilot.  You do not have a mech than can keep him/her safe for 15 rounds.  Don’t waste points trying.  Just prevent the swords from getting those 10 points.  And once that assassin gets the pilot, its pretty much game over.

2) Once the pilot has been decided one way or the other, Attack the commando.  Everyone, attack the commando, it’s the lowest hanging fruit

3) Then attack the atlas.  It’s an immobile target, so damage curves will be far higher for this than for any other mech.  Don’t waste ammo on the other swords, unless you have a great backshot.

Swords

1) get the pilot into the assassin and jump around like mad, in trees, behind cover.  Everyone else protect the assassin

2) if the pilot dies, do not protect the atlas.  You will not succeed, and in trying you will lose your main advantage of choice of range

3) try to maintain longer ranges.

4) concentrate all fire on the panther.  Should be a quick kill.

5)take out the dervish next.  more difficult, but taking out the LRMs will improve your range advantage even more than it is.

Lance vs Lance Comparison Graphs

Click on either chart to see full details. The charts demonstrate damage (vertical) at specific ranges in hexes (horizontal) for the entire lance. Except for a narrow band from 4-6 hexes, the Rented Swords demonstrate a higher capacity to inflict harm. It remains to be seen if this is enough of an advantage to address the disparities in each side’s victory conditions.

Challenge 1 Analysis: Averages

Challenge 1 Analysis: Best Performance